Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Where's the Continued Decline?

At the end of 2008, with housing data through Oct 2008 in hand, I predicted that housing prices would continue to fall, but begin to recover in the Summer of 2009 and perhaps as early as Spring (I also gave a precise definition of "recovery").

With at least 6 months more data in hand, and housing prices still seeming to fall sharply, Professor Shiller wrote in the New York Times that the housing price "decline might well continue for a long time" -- apparently disagreeing with me that a housing recovery was beginning.

Now nine more months of data are available, and here's what we see:

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