At the end of 2008, with housing data through Oct 2008 in hand, I predicted that housing prices would continue to fall, but begin to recover in the Summer of 2009 and perhaps as early as Spring (I also gave a precise definition of "recovery").
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT2PCz_5Q47GFw4swoHPZe-5WcGm1uqVaaU40i97ZAHrghkbgRdEMXNF7cGI0iW_d2lAT_qrvvAVxZHTW_cgKbc26kh_e0dlrdOxHwMpHLd71mlA7R0pPJlGNJt6mLuBCirURsM3E8VHM/s400/slide1.jpg)
With at least 6 months more data in hand, and housing prices still seeming to fall sharply, Professor Shiller wrote in the New York Times that the housing price "decline might well continue for a long time" -- apparently disagreeing with me that a housing recovery was beginning.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ-52ptKR2TqiaAKINkQq0bSmu8TYM4zr8aqjP841doLS3T2Aus6hnYppbE6-8tpHQT78H0GElhbcas3PY0sI_7GEIthGXCzuCA-6UcnhNa0GCDQklugad_dAjdupB_MmWEMSI0dgIPBs/s400/slide2.jpg)
Now nine more months of data are available, and here's what we see:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT2PCz_5Q47GFw4swoHPZe-5WcGm1uqVaaU40i97ZAHrghkbgRdEMXNF7cGI0iW_d2lAT_qrvvAVxZHTW_cgKbc26kh_e0dlrdOxHwMpHLd71mlA7R0pPJlGNJt6mLuBCirURsM3E8VHM/s400/slide1.jpg)
With at least 6 months more data in hand, and housing prices still seeming to fall sharply, Professor Shiller wrote in the New York Times that the housing price "decline might well continue for a long time" -- apparently disagreeing with me that a housing recovery was beginning.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ-52ptKR2TqiaAKINkQq0bSmu8TYM4zr8aqjP841doLS3T2Aus6hnYppbE6-8tpHQT78H0GElhbcas3PY0sI_7GEIthGXCzuCA-6UcnhNa0GCDQklugad_dAjdupB_MmWEMSI0dgIPBs/s400/slide2.jpg)
Now nine more months of data are available, and here's what we see:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRNEgKP3GTCY5aOh5KdJymnxPKJFlKgHClG200wNec7uFrAchVMBonajgCMbiv-Z7zOv2vWjeL2Icr-mHWIdYlMZuHkRbYKKNN_2G-t0xzU31W-yH0btRtvQAnbrRbS2y7LihCuOUsUis/s400/slide3.jpg)
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