The forecasts below are unchanged from my NBER working paper #15681, but now there is an extra quarter of data (the 2009 Q4 advance) for comparison. [For those charts with 3 scenarios, the green/"partial recovery" is the one I think is correct/best guess]
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmuPpDV6WSHk_fWOIUYJ6SlQxCzt32rjSnvfUw-wqQWd0uCpMPvUUvlmpmQY5lHURZn-NdmKYZH0WYyghBZGUIc_WHOGFycuNeBeWb1z1b6YRzn8PWG53hRBB1AK9U1SSTfzSCfuqyZ-U/s400/laborshockfig5a.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8DDTtEAlIUShEr9ZbMDBqdqYDlPBBXK8M9rZO8sU3fizm1OLBPwYM1k6IqSO1RSON5AG6rPt7jyA_LApeUv1VwPGdgq4_CifGd2ca3ErYACi_5AQ5bqdbkqm5TaY2zdu2P-WExoI1DOk/s400/laborshockfig5b.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBQt6uFxoOsLHMPadXh2o8LxxO9SsKm732jW5Fyz23cOA21L_3Hx7A4GbMLNafoxNPEAN0i93nz5b_E8x3iknrapSeXpKIHR_M2KfO-iHlJhTARjDS0khH4giNv5xNZmbwpra9KOShDZM/s400/laborshockfig5c.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUx6-dDKGUKSoeei3CXRqfibiSoBZ4kUy8EZd5MZY66vN66_3XFeJmiKWYywWiQCXdoNmCeZRfWmBuvus0agGOwgXUb0LDrjsFVAorLm0LUr5yrWjQgqkMD6ZJCowM-TKgV3QxxqoWrAQ/s400/laborshockfig5d.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp6_59Uow3591o1BaQIXixQCkJOKrlWJZcr3tCvsCJgKtWVqipPO-vToSV3I_8qCXtUIy4M_mYECTtPldZC8srCBhrpn1GvkPo57w7yqfIUw1T-Nzw9BstQBmvqjq8jPNiqJ83vWo8kf8/s400/laborshockfig5e.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4WMwa4c27T3WhSx8aLJINweCY0LZ2R6yM9wdmLF3MLCtTCYXEV9pkSAo75UcFIQzhyVKv-BrWzf2iVFoB_-3dTFVkKf25RhJt_Az-vqRjX4EbekO8kHvCJ23WpwYwhuO8L5MeVmaGhQg/s400/laborshockfig5f.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiudax8bWyTiRvhdite7SmzpFvr87fI9dcPu8gvrTZYfoKQWGQlziAmubZp_Eh74uBvkdk4VXSIbLIj1t1JC5ilbAhTDX1AW25FDyf90eI4yFb9E5jhYNCw4uKYyxiikCXH8g4TRzZveX8/s400/laborshockfig8a.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTMrFeBmco4VI1IP0FJCw2GJNReL_YFXYV_pIDwWrvd5cOoZHrLJwkzOwiDbgV5IHZfGVNV9bwTUoQqgLEpdVIyd7cs3EFgJVxRi-ZkSmOioccZJQKe36U061V1wATStcsXy7A2jY1MW4/s400/laborshockfig8b.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmuPpDV6WSHk_fWOIUYJ6SlQxCzt32rjSnvfUw-wqQWd0uCpMPvUUvlmpmQY5lHURZn-NdmKYZH0WYyghBZGUIc_WHOGFycuNeBeWb1z1b6YRzn8PWG53hRBB1AK9U1SSTfzSCfuqyZ-U/s400/laborshockfig5a.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8DDTtEAlIUShEr9ZbMDBqdqYDlPBBXK8M9rZO8sU3fizm1OLBPwYM1k6IqSO1RSON5AG6rPt7jyA_LApeUv1VwPGdgq4_CifGd2ca3ErYACi_5AQ5bqdbkqm5TaY2zdu2P-WExoI1DOk/s400/laborshockfig5b.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBQt6uFxoOsLHMPadXh2o8LxxO9SsKm732jW5Fyz23cOA21L_3Hx7A4GbMLNafoxNPEAN0i93nz5b_E8x3iknrapSeXpKIHR_M2KfO-iHlJhTARjDS0khH4giNv5xNZmbwpra9KOShDZM/s400/laborshockfig5c.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUx6-dDKGUKSoeei3CXRqfibiSoBZ4kUy8EZd5MZY66vN66_3XFeJmiKWYywWiQCXdoNmCeZRfWmBuvus0agGOwgXUb0LDrjsFVAorLm0LUr5yrWjQgqkMD6ZJCowM-TKgV3QxxqoWrAQ/s400/laborshockfig5d.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp6_59Uow3591o1BaQIXixQCkJOKrlWJZcr3tCvsCJgKtWVqipPO-vToSV3I_8qCXtUIy4M_mYECTtPldZC8srCBhrpn1GvkPo57w7yqfIUw1T-Nzw9BstQBmvqjq8jPNiqJ83vWo8kf8/s400/laborshockfig5e.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4WMwa4c27T3WhSx8aLJINweCY0LZ2R6yM9wdmLF3MLCtTCYXEV9pkSAo75UcFIQzhyVKv-BrWzf2iVFoB_-3dTFVkKf25RhJt_Az-vqRjX4EbekO8kHvCJ23WpwYwhuO8L5MeVmaGhQg/s400/laborshockfig5f.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiudax8bWyTiRvhdite7SmzpFvr87fI9dcPu8gvrTZYfoKQWGQlziAmubZp_Eh74uBvkdk4VXSIbLIj1t1JC5ilbAhTDX1AW25FDyf90eI4yFb9E5jhYNCw4uKYyxiikCXH8g4TRzZveX8/s400/laborshockfig8a.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTMrFeBmco4VI1IP0FJCw2GJNReL_YFXYV_pIDwWrvd5cOoZHrLJwkzOwiDbgV5IHZfGVNV9bwTUoQqgLEpdVIyd7cs3EFgJVxRi-ZkSmOioccZJQKe36U061V1wATStcsXy7A2jY1MW4/s400/laborshockfig8b.jpg)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrdikiV1_GeO5WhZ1f34Mph65leSY3Q0VnFUd9YrCMTCyn6kIbr__xG_BsB_4Ft_W9DDiVB9cq0KHHTwFWKIFuxKVwR8eapyJqZy7FdFNehj-a4dMyFQpwij1wNu5bAuEFvOP9DKwDjzI/s400/laborshockfig8c.jpg)
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