Saturday, October 2, 2010


Today Professor Krugman applauded my creativity, but forgot to mention my detailed forecasts, and their accuracy over the past year-and-a-half.

Click below for some of those predictions:

The academic papers are released later than the blog entries, but they give extensive details of how the models work, and how the statistical analysis compares them to "Keynesian" models:

Does Labor Supply Matter During a Recession? Evidence from the Seasonal Cycle

The Housing Cycle and Prospects for Technical Progress

Simple Analytics and Empirics of the Government Spending Multiplier and Other “Keynesian” Paradoxes

Aggregate Implications of Labor Market Distortions: The Recession of 2008-9 and Beyond

And don't forget my debate with Dr. Eggertsson.

Contrary to Professor Krugman's claims, I have not made any predictions regarding interest rates. I have made predictions related to inflation:

Government spending does NOT create inflation

Inflation depends on investor sentiment, and I don't make predictions about that!

When inflation comes, it will be welcome.

1 comment:

TGGP said...

Would you agree with Karl Smith's categorizing you as a Real Business Cycle theorist?