Friday, July 2, 2010

Not Supposed to Be This Accurate

Updates including consumption through May 2010 and labor usage through June 2010.

The yellow curve is the forecast I prepared almost a year ago, and have not changed since.

This time I changed the consumption display format -- made the "data" circles so that they might not be covered up by the forecast!

My model is a simple version of the neoclassical growth model, so there's some luck here that the labor forecasts are within tenths of a percent and the consumption forecasts within hundredths of a percent.

The May consumption spike comes from the May spike in Federal employment (I measure consumption of both private and nondefense public sectors, and estimate monthly public consumption from the monthly time pattern of government employment).

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