In October, I predicted that real GDP would not fall below $11 trillion year 2000 dollars. So far, that's been right.
If real GDP drops below $11 trillion, that would be a real GDP decline that is slightly worse than the 1981-82 recession.
I was wrong about employment, though.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUBVp6avKX3DG2q2O6JieDbb5QjYlYwAbDMmmn56aDV9Y-P4IDkKII4iut1RNnktAYB5Whf2zORNnvOb0AG8exU4j0byi3ZhB1KMo5lRUu8s3JSyyBbtE-nELu5vI_WWus8Gw_vwOH9v8/s400/gdpfloor2009q1.jpg)
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If real GDP drops below $11 trillion, that would be a real GDP decline that is slightly worse than the 1981-82 recessionThat would be a 5.3% decline which is substantially worse than the 1981 recession which troughed at a 2.7% decline four quarters after NBER peak.
The Minnie Fed has the GDP and nonfarm payroll employment percentage declines here and here for all post WW2 recessions.
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