Friday, January 29, 2010

GDP report and my forecasts

I have been publishing forecasts on this blog, and put them in the NBER working paper series earlier this month.

This morning, BEA releases its 2009 Q4 national accounts estimates. I have a busy day today, but I was able to check real consumption (which I define to be nondurables + services + nondefense government consumption). My model said $9.7187 trillion and the release today said $9.7195 trillion (2005 dollars): the two are within 1 one-hundreth of one percent!

I think the real GDP and real investment releases are higher than I forecast, but I will confirm and post charts on Monday.

No comments: