- New York Times article on today's marginal product of capital and substitute private (sic) providers of banking services. Further elaboration in a September blog entry.
- Recent stock market declines may be partly due to news about corporate earnings, but much (probably most) is a change in the market's willingness to own a given earnings stream. If your willingness has changed less (more), you should buy (sell).
- (Measured) Housing prices will fall further in many places.
- Calculation of the effect of Treasury investments in volatile bank stocks on the deadweight cost of taxes.
Friday, October 10, 2008
An Economy You Can Bank On
Normally, my job is to conjure new hypotheses to explain puzzles in old data. But these days, the marketplace for ideas has a void in the application of the old ideas of supply and demand to the most recent data. So far, here's what I've found: