Tuesday, October 14, 2008

The Profit Rate during the 1930s Era Bank Panics

As recently as 2008 Q2, corporate earnings were quite high by historical standards. This by itself predicts high rates of economic growth -- the baseline from which we can subtract any adverse growth effect of the today's so-called credit crunch. Moreover, corporate profits are an important substitute for bank loans (see my earlier posts). So an economy with high corporate profits is probably more resilient to banking sector failures than would an economy with low corporate profits.

According to Friedman and Schwartz' A Monetary History of the United States, the first (short) banking crisis of the Great Depression was in November 1930 and, in Professor Lee O'Hanian's words, "The first banking crisis of any national significance didn't occur until the fall of 1931." Regardless of which date you choose, the economy was already in bad shape. Friedman and Schwartz (p. 306) explain how the economy had already declined very significantly by October 1930: "Even if the contraction had come to an end in late 1930 or early 1931 ... it would have been ranked as one of the more severe contractions on record."

The marginal product of capital was above average in 1929 (although not nearly as far above the average as we are today). Maybe that means that, absent crop failures, etc., the economy might have grown well otherwise. Maybe that means that the 1929 economy would have been resilient to a severe bank panic. But I see 1931 as the more relevant comparison, because in the fall of that year the serious bank panics began. The 1931 marginal product of capital was 2.5%/year less than it was in 1929. By 1931, there were not extraordinary corporate profits that could be rolled back into corporations as a substitute for bank funding. The low 1931 marginal product of capital was by itself predicting a low rate of subsequent economic growth.

In summary, the marginal product of capital in the months prior to today's liquidity crisis was much higher than it was in the months prior to the 1931-3 bank panics. This not only raises the growth rate forecast from which to subtract any adverse impact of liquidity crisis, but also reduces the expected magnitude of that impact.

20 comments:

Donald Pretari said...

God I hope you're right. But, correct me if I'm wrong, aren't we going to have to wait and see?

Don the libertarian Democrat

Yasir said...

The system has been around for many years, but this economic downturn has created an especially huge number of laid-off employees who. bubblegum casting

Usama shaikh said...

God I hope you're right. But, correct me if I'm wrong, aren't we going to have to wait and see?bubblegum casting

JOJO said...

With no new job in sight, a large group of people are under considerable personal and financial stress. In recognition of these facts, the “stimulus” law of 2009 extended the eligibility period for unemployment benefits, and provided additional funds for the program.

Before this recession, most economists probably thought that some amount of unemployment benefits were just and compassionate, and offered a sense of security even to people who were lucky enough to retain their jobs, despite the fact that the program would raise unemployment rates and reduce both employment and economic output. facebook marketing

JOJO said...

In recognition of these facts, the “stimulus” law of 2009 extended the eligibility period for unemployment benefits, and provided additional funds for the program. bed bath and beyond coupons 2014

JOJO said...

This not only raises the growth rate forecast from which to subtract any adverse impact of liquidity crisis, but also reduces the expected magnitude of that impact. na dobry sen

JOJO said...

You spend more time and energy criticizing Mr. Mulligan for earning his PhD from an Ivy League school then actually challenging his position. Your comment is clearly agenda-driven which carries no counter argument. cna classes

JOJO said...

Their small town seems to be cursed and has never won a championship of any kind since the same boys lost ‘game 7’ years ago while playing Junior B hockey. They are now faced with another “Game 7” scenario and must fight the other team while fighting each other in order to redeem their infamous loss many years before. www.chandlersca.co.uk

JOJO said...

As part of photography, it is crucial to fluctuate the actual quantity of sides that you use on the matter. best ecig

JOJO said...

I never read whole articles but the way you wrote this information is simply amazing and this kept my interest in reading and I enjoyed it. vlc player download

JOJO said...

I am confident that these industries will continue to offer health insurance to their employees in much the same way that they have in the past. Buy Twitter Followers UK

JOJO said...

As recently as 2008 Q2, business income were quite great by traditional requirements. comment pirater facebook

JOJO said...

As recently as 2008 Q2, business income were quite great by traditional requirements. comment pirater facebook

JOJO said...

The recession has seen a number of economists ignore prior findings on unemployment insurance, at least as long as this recession continues. energimærkning pris

JOJO said...

My first full-length perform was already released in High University for our Abilities Devices and it was a modern-day take on the The Xmas Mom. Buy Gold Bars

JOJO said...

The 1931 marginal product of capital was 2.5%/year less than it was in 1929. By 1931, there were not extraordinary corporate profits that could be rolled back into corporations as a substitute for bank funding. The low 1931 marginal product of capital was by itself predicting a low rate of subsequent economic growth. home page

Yasir said...

removed it from the SD cards. A few moments in the microwave delivers comfort to. anonymous

JOJO said...

Obviously supply and demand is an extremely powerful framework, but you grossly exaggerate the strength of what you can conclude from just it and so little other data and analysis. drivenow gutschein

JOJO said...

It could be that our masters are so wise that they anticipate bad growth and expand government spending to remedy it - and I am sure that is what they would tell us. check this site out

JOJO said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.