Friday, August 14, 2009

Mulligan vs Krugman on Housing

12/08/08: I wrote that housing would begin to recover in the "summer of 2009" (that's now!). I reiterated that forecast in April, with some discussion of how low real incomes might back that date up, but still sticking with summer 2009 as a likely possibility.

07/18/09: Professor Krugman writes "Housing Won't Recover Until At Least 2011"

Even though Professor Krugman had 7+ months more additional data to use for his forecast, I still think his forecast is wrong (and mine is the reliable one) because Professor Krugman has not indicated that he has made any consideration of supply or demand.

So let's revisit this disagreement in six months.

1 comment:

Benjamin said...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/first-time-home-buyer-frenzy.html

Key quote: "Expect a surge in existing home sales (and some new home sales) over the next few months. Expect prices at the low end to rise (simple supply and demand). Expect all kinds of reports that the bottom has been reached.

Expect the frenzy to end ... "