Employment is still falling pretty sharply.
While GDP has hardly surprised me, I did not anticipate last fall that employment would get so low. Even with the benefit of hindsight, I am not sure I see a complete explanation.
Part of the story is the plethora of means-tested public policies: they discourage work and raise employer costs:
- Mortgage modification
- Student loan forgiveness
- IRS enforcement of prior tax debts
- extended unemployment benefits
But likely there is more to the story: too bad I don't know more than that.