Friday, June 26, 2009

My Q2 Forecast (Productivity Based)

My forecast is that 2009 Q2's real GDP will be 1 percent lower than 2009 Q1's. Annualizing that forecast, it's -4.2 percent. We already know about the job losses through May, and my guess is that (as in previous quarters) these losses continue to be a movement along a stable labor demand curve.

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