Thursday, June 25, 2009

Flashback: BEA will Revise Up

In April, I said that real GDP fell 1.0 - 1.5 percent 2008 Q4 - 2009 Q1. The -1.0 was based on an analysis of spending; the -1.5 on an analysis of productivity.

Later the BEA gave its advance estimate of -1.57 percent, and I said that the BEA would eventually revise 2009 Q1 real GDP up (that is, determine that the Q4-Q1 growth rate was less negative than indicated by the advance estimate.

Later still, the BEA revised the real GDP growth estimate to -1.47 percent, and I said that they still have upward revisions to do (in part because Q1 productivity was looking better than I had initially thought).

This morning, the BEA gave its final estimate of -1.40 percent.

All of these estimates agree that real consumption grew 2008 Q4 - 2009 Q1. I am still surprised that the BEA finds that non-residential construction fell somewhat more than residential construction did.

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