Friday, February 27, 2009

6.2 percent!

BEA now says that real GDP fell 1.6 percent in Q4 (if that were repeated 3 more quarters, that would be -6.2 percent 2008 Q3 to 2009 Q3)! The -1.6 is revised from -0.95 (3.8 percent/year).

One of the components significantly revised seems to be with real investment -- now they say it fell 5.8 percent for the quarter, rather than the 3.3 percent previously estimated. I don't think they really changed their estimate of investment expenditure, just that they now say that investment goods prices ROSE at a 3.6 percent annual rate. I don't see how that could be true.

Nevertheless, even with this revision my investment-by-recession figure below stilll shows that the recession is "run of the mill" when it comes to investment.

Another significant component of revision seems to be nominal government spending.

No comments: