Friday, February 6, 2009

134 million floor

In October I predicted that employment would not drop below 134 million. It hasn't yet -- but it got close enough in January that I am skeptical that this prediction will turn out right.

2 comments:

Don said...

In October, it was not clear that employers would begin proactively shedding workers. Beginning in the middle of November, they did. Also, it was not written in stone. Policy actions have made things worse.

Don the libertarian Democrat

Joseph said...

Same as teh prediction that only the finacial sector should worry about job losses.

Hopefully 130mm will be the floor...

But who really knows? It seems like the classic chicken and egg problem:

I will invest, but only if people want to buy what I am willing to invest in. Peopel are only willing to buy what I invest in if they have income, which happens to be provided by my willingness to invest. So, why invest?