PERSONAL INCOME ANGLE
My point estimate for real GDP growth Q3 to Q4 is -2.5% (annualized rate). I get this by assuming that TFP follows trend (about 2% annualized; remember that I see that not much is happening with labor demand) and that labor falls 7%. 2 - (7 * labor's share) = -3. Then I add a little because personal income has done surprisingly well in November.
[some hand waving ...] Probability (real GDP Q4 higher than real GDP Q3) = 0.33. Probability (real annualized GDP growth Q3-Q4 < -5%) + .25. That is, the consensus forecasts are too pessimistic, but not impossible.