Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Robotic-Task Economics

Copyright, The New York Times Company

The forces of supply and demand suggest that the machines of the future will continue to be significantly different from people.

Anthropomorphic robots are prominent in science fiction. Novels like Mary Shelley’s “Frankenstein,” and films like “E.T.,” “Star Wars” and “The Terminator” feature machines with one head, two eyes and many other features of humans. But those robots were created by authors to entertain audiences, and not by investors to produce some other kind of economic value.

At first glance, it would seem that the state of technological progress is all that limits the creation of machines closely resembling humans. Especially after the recent recession, people are concerned that technological progress is moving at a pace that will soon permit machines to put wide swaths of the human population out of work, and not just displace workers from one industry to another.

I disagree. Powerful economic forces will push the machines of the future to be different from people, and to complement workers rather than mimic what they do.

Machines are expensive to design and manufacture, and most of the people directing the creation of machines have an eye on the rate of return: the economic value of a finished machine as compared to the costs of creating it. The more profitable investments will, by definition, be in machines with a higher rate of return.

The earth is already occupied by quite a number of people, and a machine like Frankenstein or C-3PO might find itself with seven billion competitors.

Take my example last week of baby-sitter robots. A baby-sitting machine with a high rate of return might, as one commenter suggested, be one designed to help children during fires and other disasters. Or a machine to care for children at night. These are examples of child care tasks with less competition from people than the ordinary baby-sitting tasks.

Human help is, of course, not free, and economizing on the cost of a baby sitter or an automobile driver is a reward for creating a machine to do those tasks. But the amount of the reward is commensurate with the amount of wages that people earn in the task.

Machines that drive human workers into unemployment, rather than into another industry where the human workers will be productive, will serve only to drive down workers’ wages and thereby drive down the machine’s value. Machines that, instead, help people to be more productive will find it much harder to saturate their own market.

Rather than finding an intelligent and tireless robot in your office chair, expect the machines of the future to help workers, not harm them.


45 comments:

Unknown said...

What is the image on the cover of your book (the 'redistribution recession') supposed to mean?

Yasir said...

Creating suggestions to unless A amazing part about the glide display concept is that al1. bubblegum casting

JOJO said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
JOJO said...

As part of photography, it is crucial to fluctuate the actual quantity of sides that you use on the matter. best online backup

JOJO said...

z

JOJO said...

Septic systems and hookup. Most of these products and technologies have been designed to address one or both of the two central problems presented by flushing away human waste. is bubblegum casting legitimate

JOJO said...

A variety of sectors can expect big changes in worker wellness insurance policy coverage in the next season or two, while others will continue with business as usual. Asiapoker77

JOJO said...

I disagree. Powerful economic forces will push the machines of the future to be different from people, and to complement workers rather than mimic what they do. facebook marketing

JOJO said...

Memorial was also seen as part of the Queer Arts Festival in Vancouver and has had subsequent readings at Half Moon Theatre in New York. Buy Twitter Followers UK

JOJO said...

In 2001 she provided as a playwright in property at the Young Individuals Theatre, where she had written the program Scotian Trip. http://www.kedaibola.com/agen-casino-online-indonesia/

JOJO said...

Anne-Marie Forest is well known for her one lady performs such as Patiently waiting To Burst, a perform with 8 funny women figures that considered many problems in modern community through the use of funny and music. london accountant

JOJO said...

The scams becomes noticeable on web page 36 where they observe that areas of wellness change increase minor tax prices. bulk glass pipes

JOJO said...

And had a whole new host of medications and expenses, I invited her to live with me and my family. I have never regretted it once. e cigs

JOJO said...

The Manoogs desired children members company that would continue the stewardship of the museum. helpful hints

JOJO said...

The scams becomes noticeable on web page 36 where they observe that areas of wellness change increase minor tax prices. HGH

JOJO said...

Corn demands increases day by day so soybean farmers have to more dedicated towards their work and boost their role in the growth of business. Playfinity

JOJO said...

That can be found at the college and even the secondary university and junior secondary university stages as a prospective career resource. Tom Pisarski

JOJO said...

Really great post, Thank you for sharing This knowledge.Excellently written article, if only all bloggers offered the same level of content as you, the internet would be a much better place. http://www.love2drive.co

Yasir said...

Department of Agriculture-Natural Sources PerformanceHer image of the experimenter and the place of his assessments shows both the unseen problems. see rebelmouse for more info

Unknown said...

I found this website that deals with private security and alarms and I thought it may be helpful to you and your readers. http://www.socalaccessandvideo.com

JOJO said...

That is very good comment you shared.Thank you so much that for you shared those things with us.Im wishing you to carry on with ur achivments. Buy Twitter Followers UK

JOJO said...

I am confident that these industries will continue to offer health insurance to their employees in much the same way that they have in the past. roofing

JOJO said...

“The Terminator” feature machines with one head, two eyes and many other features of humans. But those robots were created by authors to entertain audiences, and not by investors to produce some other kind of economic value. Dr. Mysse

Yasir said...

There are a several problems here — the extensive variety of other employees has to create with the team. It progressively becomes fairly large, with complicated. Drivers

JOJO said...

Le théâtre doit se permettre de créer le malaise. D'être violent par ses choix. D'explorer les dangers d'une vie bien remplie. Les meilleures histoires sont celles pleines de surprises : ce sont des voyages permettant la découverte des autres ainsi que de soi. http://appleshark.com

JOJO said...

'explorer les dangers d'une vie bien remplie. Les meilleures histoires sont celles pleines de surprises : ce sont des voyages permettant la découverte des autres ainsi que de soi. desire system review

Unknown said...

You will not pay one penny of interest on your initial day Loan with USA Checks paid. we've got a bent to any or all grasp there unit all absolutely fully totally different disposition firms {that you|that you merely|that you simply} just merely simply auto title cash loans costa mesa might price legion really to work with, however we've got a bent to tend to created our “1st day Loan Interest Free” offer as our suggests that of making a trial to earn your loyalty and plenty of thanks for your business.

JOJO said...

Woods continues to be a renaissance woman; she is an arts educator, and does diversity presentations using theatre and for corporations. She continues to write and create and hopes to have her work published and on a main stage within the next two years. Her achievements were recently recognized by the Black Business and Professional Association with an Excellence in Entertainment Award. pretty nails

JOJO said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
saugata said...

If your looking for cheap car insurance in asheville but are not sure how to get the best price. Read this article and find additional saving methods to lower your auto insurance upfront costs. http://www.ableautoinsurance.com

Unknown said...

If you need to obtain flood insurance but are not sure how to get the best price. Read this article and find additional saving methods to lower your upfront costs. http://www.denismillerinsurance.com

Unknown said...

This is the first instant even have glimpsed you’re joyous and do harking back to to tell you – it's very pleasing to seem at that i am appreciative for your diligence. whereas if you expected did it for the length of a awfully very straightforward methodology that's ready to be very gracious gift card swap. whereas over all i actually elective you and affirmative can comprise for a alallotmentment of mails like this. many specific feeling most.

Unknown said...

I merely have a gaze here and seem large to go looking out out this journal. flush content composing hand and very helpful location. i would like most of we tend to tend to World Health Organization unit to go looking out these sorts of things, here we are going to notice everything car title loans
. i am with the content honor associate degreed do esteem him as an honest provider. Thanks for your exertions and you too.

Unknown said...

This is the primary blink I even have glimpsed your content and do value any terribly to inform you – it's if reality be notified pleasing to glimpse that i be convinced regarding your toil. however if you presumably did it in associate significantly clear-cut approach that is able to be terribly wise payday loan for you montgomery. however over all I significantly prompt you and positive can linger for extra mails like this. articulate feeling you most.

Rick Tinker Insurance said...

If you need to obtain wind insurance but are not sure how to get the best price. Read this article and find additional saving methods to lower your upfront costs. http://www.rtinkerinsurance.com

Unknown said...

Thanks for sharing this information. Very informative and also helpful Caribbean Jobs, Legal Jobs and mobile option Caribbean Jobs

Thanks again

Usama shaikh said...

Festival in Vancouver and has had subsequent readings at Half Moon Theatre in New York. pellet gun reviews

Usama shaikh said...

My pleasure to being here on your blog..I wanna come beck here for new post from your site. PC Suite Free Download

Unknown said...

Having trouble finding a reliable surety bonds provider? If you want to get affordable surety bond rates with a real, professional, licensed National Association of Surety Bond Producer, contact us today. http://www.suretybondsbyunique.com

Usama shaikh said...

I think I should also work hard for my own website like I see some good and updated working in your site. best vacuum for wood floors

A Emergency Restoration Services said...

Has your home been devastated due adverse weather conditions? For reliable, local, fire damage restoration in Chicago, contact us today.fire damage restoration morton grove

Unknown said...

Has your clock spring or your trampoline springs gone bad? Allrite, is a leading torsion spring and compression spring, manufacturer, contact us today.coil springs

Unknown said...

Are you having credit card debt problems in Boca Raton ?, Do you need credit card defense or an fdcpa attorney in Boca Raton, Broward, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Palm Beach, West Palm Beach, call us today for expert help. http://www.collectiondefenselawyer.com

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.