Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Kudlow Clip

5 comments:

Jack Green said...

I'm shocked that you (Prof. Mulligan) felt comfortable posting the Kudlow clip on this blog. Prof. Reich called your logic "absurd". Prof. Reich was being overly kind.

This is a balance sheet recession of outsized depth and global scope that still hasn't fully stabilized. And you support your employment position/argument with a localized 1980's Pittsburgh example?? Are you kidding me? Perhaps your view of new job creation is one of parents standing on street corners trying to peddle apples and pencils so ass to afford some potatoes for the family dinner, like in the 30s.

The US economy is demand based. We have debt overhangs throughout the economy built over decades. The housing market continues to decline. The financial industry continues risk averse positions, rather is complacent to let their Fed balances slowly inflate their balance sheets ... very low economic velocity. Industry is operating far below capacity, which means low incentive for capital/capacity investment, other than efficiency targeted technology/process shifts. Fewer jobs will return as demand slowly grows. Structural changes in social programs and government spending will also place further headwind pressure on this demand economy.

Even with near term strategies to get this economy stabilized and growing (sub-standard), it will take years of slow improvements on many fronts to get the employment numbers below 5% because of the type and depth of recession we've gotten ourselves into. I found your argument on the Kudlow program completely incredible.

"This Time is Different". Read it.

Brian J. Gladish said...

Robert Reich succumbed to the "lump of labor" fallacy and denied the disutility of labor all in one short segment. And then he implied he was a "legitimate" economist and you were not! It sure appeared to me that you came out on top.

Freshwater Macro said...

I completely agree with your view Casey! I just wish you showed that lawyer Reich how absurd Reich's arguments were.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303828304575180243952375172.html

Larry Summers discussed the ill effects of unemployment benefits. Also, there is contract theory and search theory. You know way more about this than a lowly all but dissertation like myself from a freshwater school. Just be more forceful and less respectful! He's JD not a PhD! He doesn't deserve your time.

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