Friday, February 5, 2010

Same Model Fits New Data

Below is Figure 8a from my NBER working paper #15681. The model predictions (orange series) are exactly the same as I showed it in the NBER wp, and have been showing for a while on this blog.

The data series (blue) has been updated to reflect (a) this morning's release of Jan 2010 employment and hours data, and (b) this morning's release of BLS revisions to the data from since April 2008.

The model was designed to fit the pre-BLS-revised employment and hours data through summer 2009, and this was changed with the revision, so it would be interesting to see the model fit to the BLS-revised data. But it is interesting that the recovery is occurring at very close to the pace the model predicted.

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