Monday, November 17, 2008

Flashback: Rockin' Like a Hurricane

A month ago, I wrote:

"we should be careful not to extrapolate the rate of economic growth measured through September 2008 into the future. We should also be careful to evaluate economic growth measured FROM September 2008 with the understanding that some "rebound" is to be expected as factories clean up after a hurricane or strike."

Today the AP reported:

"Industrial output posted a bigger-than-expected rebound in October after plunging in September by the largest amount in over 60 years. The Federal Reserve said Monday that industrial output rose 1.3 percent last month, reflecting a return to more normal operations following hurricanes and a strike at aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co. the previous month."

Keep this in mind when 2008 Q4 growth comes out.

1 comment:

sugam said...

but you forgot to look at the revised number for the previous month.. if you take that into account, the activity report is not so shiny...