60,000 - 80,000 Americans died from the 2017-18 flu, without exceeding the capacity of ICU beds. This flu was experienced around the world. Not a single country found it worth shutting down their economies in that situation.
In 2020 the forecast is that about 90,000 Americans will die from COVID-19, including some deaths due to insufficient ICU capacity. Shutting down "nonessential" businesses is now the norm.
This forecast comes from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation IMHE at the University of Washington. Unlike me, IMHE are not amateurs with contagious disease time series. With "about 500 statisticians, computer scientists, and epidemiologists on staff, IHME is a data-crunching powerhouse. Every year it releases the Global Burden of Disease study...."
At what point is a reasonable person allowed to ask why the economic policies of 2017-18 and 2020 are so disproportionate?
Some people will say that the 90,000 would have been much higher without shutting down the economy. At what point can a reasonable person follow up with "Why were ALL of the 2020 costs, which were in the $ trillions, taken on the economic (and civil liberty) side of the ledger, and essentially NONE on the mortality side?"
The 90K prediction is *with* the shutdown.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to know whether the shutdown is worth it, you need to compare what happens with the shutdown to what happens without the shutdown.
As far as I can see you make no attempt to do this.
(IMO questioning wether the shutdown is worth it is fine and good, but this is not a serious attempt to adress that question.)
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DeleteLikely flu viruses will spread through society, be it in one wave, two, or three. Very unlikely quarantines will stop society from catching it, although it may protect the individually diligent. Social distancing saves time, there are no sting indications this virus will go away absent herd immunity, which can be achieved with less death with better treatment and mutation toward a milder virus
What would voluntary actions look like? Or is the false dichotomy between no actions and government mandated shutdowns?
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ReplyDeletePoverty and unemployment are seldom fatal?
DeleteWhat a cavalier attitude towards other people's lives....
I speak from personal experience, having been subjected to both. Trading my life however for marketwarship, that's a new one...
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ReplyDeleteWhat Ed said. From the IMHE: "The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths."
ReplyDeleteSo does IMHE assume only government force can make those recommended actions happen?
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Some people will say that the 90,000 would have been much higher without shutting down the economy.
ReplyDeleteThe FAQ of the 90,000 number you quote says:
We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assume that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days. We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete.
So they're actually assuming that the economy is shutdown more than it currently is to reach the 90,000 number...
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