Same Analysis for Iraq

Today I wrote that Allied efforts in Libya are unlikely to bring democracy.

Iraq's situation is not much different. Tsui and I wrote in 2006:

Regime challengers are twice encouraged in Iraq – once by the expected future value of leadership and a second time by political freedoms. Perhaps attempts to grab power in Iraq would have been less intense if the country’s oil assets had not gained so much value since 2003, or entry into the Iraqi political process were as difficult as in neighboring nondemocratic countries.