This Week's Labor and Consumption Data Compared with My Forecasts

I made these forecasts last fall, and this week we had the release of another month of consumption data (Mar 2010) plus another month of labor data (Apr 2010). (Recall that the "partial recovery" scenario -- green series in Figure 5b -- is the one I thought would actually happen, in part because it was the only one consistent with consumption patterns in 2008).