In October, I predicted that real GDP would not fall below $11 trillion year 2000 dollars. So far, that's been right.
If real GDP drops below $11 trillion, that would be a real GDP decline that is slightly worse than the 1981-82 recession.
I was wrong about employment, though.
If real GDP drops below $11 trillion, that would be a real GDP decline that is slightly worse than the 1981-82 recession.
I was wrong about employment, though.
If real GDP drops below $11 trillion, that would be a real GDP decline that is slightly worse than the 1981-82 recessionThat would be a 5.3% decline which is substantially worse than the 1981 recession which troughed at a 2.7% decline four quarters after NBER peak.
ReplyDeleteThe Minnie Fed has the GDP and nonfarm payroll employment percentage declines here and here for all post WW2 recessions.