tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7539577136486286096.post1394797451160818197..comments2024-03-06T04:36:10.711-06:00Comments on Supply and Demand (in that order): Does Supply Matter During Recessions? Evidence from the Holiday SeasonalCasey B. Mulliganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03317454408275318282noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7539577136486286096.post-20533259861279392162011-01-03T18:17:20.649-06:002011-01-03T18:17:20.649-06:00This is what I posted on delong's website. Do...This is what I posted on delong's website. Does any of it make sense?<br /><br />"If "the value of retail sales incorporates the value added from retail services, plus the value imbedded in the goods themselves", why wouldn't Δ(value added)= Δ(sales)??<br /><br />I could be wrong, but if we want to increase the denominator by including employment created along other steps in the value chain, shouldn't we also match the relevant spending and therefore increase (or not decrease, in this case) the numerator? In other words, my amateur intuition tells me that in order to properly compare apples with apples, we need to compare total Δ(employment) with total Δ(value added) [which equals Δ(sales)]. Is that not so? If not, can anyone please explain the flaw in my thinking?<br /><br />If I'm right above, the numbers would undoubtedly be different, but my intuition tells me that the amount of job/years created to make $90B worth of retail goods can't be that big anyways. The result might not be $180K/job/month as Prof. Mulligan's original post states, but how much lower could it really be? Essentially, if it took an additional 1.5 million job-months to make the $90B in retail goods, wouldn't we be looking at $45K/job/month ($90B/2M)? Does that change our perspective on the efficacy of fiscal stimulus's effect on employment?<br /><br />My basic math tells me that in order to make this a break-even proposition, assuming the average person makes $5K/month, this spike in spending would have to generate 18M job-months. Does it? Where is my logic wrong?<br /><br />Thanks in advance!"Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05073039752131249473noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7539577136486286096.post-46024906959513947852011-01-01T12:06:15.470-06:002011-01-01T12:06:15.470-06:00In response Brad Delong nominates you for stupides...In response <a href="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/12/casey-mulligan-nominates-himself-for-this-years-stupidest-man-alive-prize-yes-new-york-times-why-oh-why-cant-we-have-a-b.html" rel="nofollow">Brad Delong</a> nominates you for stupidest man alive. The emphasis on the prior points in the production sequence reminded me of the Austrians.TGGPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11017651009634767649noreply@blogger.com